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 May 14, 2024
Honorable Antony J. Blinken U.S. Secretary of State 2201 C Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20520 OPEN LETTER TO ANTHONY BLINKEN, US SECRETARY OF STATE Dear Secretary Blinken, We are writing to thank you for your continued interest and support of the nascent process of democratization in Guatemala. As our name implies, Democracy for Guatemala (DEMOPAGUA) is a community of Guatemalan immigrants, and naturalized US citizens, working with North American academics, journalists, and people who have lived in Guatemala, based in the San Francisco Bay Area, who share your commitment to supporting democracy in Guatemala. As you and President Biden have stated, the U.S. and Guatemala are neighbors who have a mutual interest in eradicating the corruption and inequality that leads to migration and the illicit drug trafficking that permeate all aspects of Guatemalan life. Your recent visit to Guatemala to attend an International Conference on Migration contributes to an understanding that migration is not a problem of the U.S. border, but stems from a system of concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a small minority leading to extreme inequality and underdevelopment that literally forces people to migrate to survive. This environment has created the conditions for full institutional corruption as well. The democratically elected President of Guatemala, Dr. Bernardo Arevalo, recently emphasized in a speech to the nation that his government cannot promote development without fighting to eliminate corruption, which became increasingly entrenched during the two previous administrations. We applaud the strong efforts of the Biden-Harris Administration to ensure that the elections were fair, and that the elected President be allowed to take power. The entrenched minority, spearheaded by the the Chief Prosecutor Consuelo Porras, continue to stymie reforms that could mitigate the need for migration. In fact, the legal maneuvers and attempts to carry out a legal coup have intensified as the administration has been taking measures to uproot endemic corruption. We welcome continued U.S. support for Guatemalan democracy, recognizing that without proactive diplomacy by The United States of America, our country of origin will not be able to overcome its governance challenges, and the democratic process initiated by President Bernardo Arévalo will continue to be in peril. Thank you for your unequivocal and unbending commitment for democracy and prosperity in Guatemala. Sincerely, DEMOPAGUA cc: Brian A. Nichols, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere AffairsCongresswoman Barbara Lee, 12 District of Caliornia
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 IMAGE: The president of the Guatemalan Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), Irma Palencia (4-R) and other judges, offer a press conference to announce the official results of the run-off presidential election, in Guatemala City on Aug. 28, 2023. (Photo by JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP via Getty Images) July 27, 2023
By Naomi Roht-Arriaza Tens of thousands of Guatemalans took to the streets of the capital and towns around the country on the night of Aug. 20, waving flags, setting off fireworks, singing the national anthem, and dancing to celebrate the upset victory of Bernardo Arévalo as president. The celebrations were as unprecedented as the victory. Only a few months ago, Arévalo was polling at 8 percent. But a groundswell of support pushed him to 60 percent of the vote. His opponent, three-time candidate and former first lady Sandra Torres, won less than 40 percent, mostly from the northern provinces, which were most heavily impacted by the country’s 30-plus years of war, which ended in 1996. Arévalo won as an anti-corruption campaigner – a theme that has resonated with Guatemalans amid declining living standards and an economy that increasingly depends on remittances – while a cabal of corrupt military and civilian elites and officials, allied with organized crime, have hijacked the institutions of government. Ironically, the spurious efforts of Attorney General (called Ministerio Publico, or MP, in Spanish) Consuelo Porras to delist Arévalo’s party, the Semilla (Seed) Movement, and arrest its leaders seem to have backfired, instead providing name recognition and leading to international demands for respect of the electoral process. Worries about the integrity of the process prompted the recent visit of the Organization of American States Secretary General Luis Almagro and statements from the U.S. and European embassies. In the end, the election itself was uneventful. But election is only the first step. Now Arévalo and Semilla need to stay alive – literally and figuratively – until he takes office in January. The “Pact of the Corrupt” Strikes BackOn Aug. 24, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights announced that it had granted emergency protection measures to Arévalo and his vice-president, Karin Herrera, based on death threats and intimidation. According to the Commission’s announcement, the threats included the general climate of persecution against the party, online troll farm threats and harassment, threats from criminal gangs, and a specific assassination plot, code named “plan Colosio” after the killing of a Mexican presidential candidate in 1994, that reportedly involved both State agents and private individuals. In response to the threats Arévalo and Herrera have been using private security and cut back some of their public appearances. In addition to personal threats against the president and vice-president-elect, attacks continue against their party, and against the electoral process. Torres has still not officially conceded the election despite the lopsided results, and her lawyers filed a request to the courts to annul the process based on “irregularities” (while providing no evidence). Nonetheless, on Aug. 28 the Supreme Electoral Tribunal – itself under extreme pressure after its members were threatened with criminal investigation – finally acted. In a short announcement at the end of the day, the Tribunal announced that Arévalo and Herrera had been officially elected, even though the electoral law extends the certification period through Oct. 31. Not coincidently, at the same time the Registrar of Voters provisionally suspended Semilla as a political party based on alleged irregularities in its registration papers. Back in June, with the elections ongoing, Judge Fredy Orellana had initially ordered the suspension of Semilla. Soon after, the Constitutional Court halted the suspension during the electoral period, but with elections now declared over, the Registrar argued the suspension should be reinstated. Judge Orellana is one of the judges working with the “pacto de corruptos” (the “pact of the corrupt”), a group of economic elites allied with organized crime elements and predatory military and government officials who have captured State institutions and functions. It’s not clear what effect, if any, all this will have on Semilla’s elected officials, and suspension is not the same as a permanent shutdown. Though suspended, Semilla can function for up to six months, and president-elect Arévalo quickly indicated that his party will challenge the decision. On Aug. 30, at Porras’ instigation, the leadership body of the current Congress decided to not recognize Semilla’s seven current lawmakers as a political party. The new Congress may well try to exclude newly-elected Semilla lawmakers and designate a “provisional government” until new elections can occur. Another possible scenario involves sectors of the current government and the security forces taking advantage of predictable widespread protests defending the electoral result – and protesting against arbitrary attacks on Semilla and its supporters – to declare a “chaotic” situation and impose a state of emergency and an annulment of the elections. While the Supreme Electoral Tribunal was preparing to announce its decision, the prosecutors’ office also stepped up its attacks on anti-corruption figures. Porras’ office has seemingly decided to use the last six months of current president Alejandro Giammattei’s administration to attack enemies of the “pact of the corrupt,” legal merits be damned. Porras sent agents to the home of exiled former anti-corruption unit (FECI) head Juan Francisco Sandoval, harassing his elderly parents. She also searched the home of his former FECI colleague Eva Sosa and arrested his lawyer, Claudia González. González represents many of the former prosecutors and anti-corruption activists, including jailed FECI attorney Virginia Laparra, who Amnesty International has named as a political prisoner. Jailing González leaves her clients unprotected. González is a former employee of the United Nations-backed International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). Even though she was never a Guatemalan public official, the charges against her revolve around “abuse of official authority.” She was dragged off with media cameras rolling, and then told that Jimi Bremer, the judge who issued the arrest order – was “too busy to see her today.” After she protested, she was arraigned and sent to a military base to wait for another hearing, which is currently scheduled for Sept. 6. It soon became clear that the arrests and harassment are payback for bringing charges against Supreme Court judge Blanca Stalling, who like Porras, Orellana, and Bremer is listed as corrupt and anti-democratic by the U.S. government. When Porras came into office, the influence-peddling charges against Stalling were dropped, and she was reinstated as a judge. The Supreme Court controls the employment of lower court judges, which effectively puts trial judge Bremer in charge of overseeing the charges against his bosses’ former accuser. Demonstrations led by local and regional indigenous municipal authorities around the country have called for Porras and her deputies to resign given their anti-democratic actions. After a raucous protest outside her offices on Aug. 25, Porras demanded that the Constitutional Court tell the government to prohibit social media comments and demonstrations and protests against her and her office because they interfered with her work. The Court declined to do so. Why raise an argument that transparently violated guarantees of freedom of expression? Again, the idea seems to be to keep the incoming government paralyzed and its supporters off-kilter, to create bargaining chips during the transition period for continued impunity, and perhaps to use a climate of tensions and violence to provoke repressive actions or a suspension of the constitution. Unfortunately, the public prosecutor is independent of the administration. Porras was reappointed by the current president last year, and her term does not end until 2026, unless she resigns or is convicted of a serious crime. Only significant pressure from inside and outside the country will force her to resign or to back down. Moreover, although Arévalo has promised to bring home the judges and prosecutors that Porras has forced into exile, it will be difficult to reinstate them, at least in the short term as they have formally resigned their positions. International figures, including Almagro, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Gutierres and high-level U.S. officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken have condemned the prosecutor’s actions and the attempt to invalidate Semilla. What more could be done? Many of the Porras’ actions have been instigated, reported, and supported by the extreme right “Foundation Against Terrorism” and the association of retired military veterans, known as AVEMILGUA. In turn, the FCT or “Fundaterror” (as it is known in Guatemala) has been linked in the press to powerful families in the ruling elite. The United States could increase pressure on those private sector actors financing the FCT through Magnitsky sanctions, for example, and ask the rest of the private sector (some of which has supported Arévalo) to speak out more forcefully against arbitrary arrests, and in support of democracy and the rule of law. The Biden administration could also use the threat of losing access to U.S. markets through the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) or the annual quota on sugar imports to make clear to recalcitrant sectors of the elite that there will be a steep price to pay if the will of the voters is not respected. Military aid and sales, already sharply limited by Congress, could be further reduced through changes to Defense Department training and equipment programs, if the military supports efforts to overturn the results. It’s a long time between now and January, and the attacks on anti-corruption figures and on Semilla leaders and activists will likely only increase. The joy of Arévalo’s victory across Guatemala is now tempered by the knowledge that continued threats of violence and rogue prosecutions will continue, with the ever-present risk of physical violence or of a break in the constitutional order. Friends of Guatemalan democracy will need to be vigilant and forceful for Arévalo and Semilla to reach inauguration day.  IMAGE: Police officers stand guard as indigenous women burn incense outside the Constitutional Court during the “March of the Flowers” in Guatemala City on July 23, 2023, to demand the resignation of judicial officials accused of generating an electoral crisis in Guatemala ahead of a runoff vote on Aug. 20. (Photo by JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP via Getty Images) by Naomi Roht-Arriaza
July 27, 2023 Just Security: https://www.justsecurity.org/87389/guatemalan-election-runoff-endangered-by-corrupt-authorities/ Guatemalans went to the polls on June 25 to elect a new president, Congress, and local authorities. No one held high hopes for change: three of the most well-known tickets (all with an anti-establishment bent of some kind) had been disqualified on thin- to nonexistent grounds, and their candidates were calling for voters to cast deliberately spoiled ballots that would be annulled. Status quo candidates were allowed to run unimpeded. The polls predicted continuity. The polls were wrong. Since then, the country has been immersed in a political and legal crisis, with growing worries that the second round of elections will be canceled or stolen by those seeking continuity. The crisis has been provoked largely by questionable actions of Attorney General (called Ministerio Publico, or MP, in Spanish) Consuelo Porras’ office and a group of like-minded judges. As people take to the streets en masse to protect the integrity of the elections and call for accountability for corrupt authorities, the risk of violent repression or even military intervention also grows. The first round of voting yielded two predicable results: the number of null or spoiled ballots came in first, with 18 percent of the vote, and as has happened twice before, some 15 percent of the electorate voted for Sandra Torres, a former first lady known for expanding social welfare programs during her husband’s administration. Her party (known as UNE) has been accused of ties to organized crime and large-scale corruption, and supported the agenda of President Alejandro Giammattei, who is barred by term limits from running again. The big surprise was the second-place finisher in the presidential race after Torres, Bernardo Arévalo of the Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement). Semilla grew out of the massive 2015 anti-corruption protests that forced then-President Pérez Molina to resign. He, his vice president, and several ministers and advisors had been charged with embezzlement, bribery, and other corruption-related crimes after investigations led by the United Nations-backed Commission Against Impunity (CICIG). Semilla won a handful of congressional seats in 2019 and spent the next few years building a political party and denouncing the “Pact of the Corrupt” that had taken over Congress, the Prosecutor/Attorney General’s Office, independent agencies, and the courts. It had placed eighth in pre-vote polls. Why did Semilla do so well? Pundits pointed to the disqualification of candidates who could have attracted similar voters, as well as increasing urbanization throughout the country, the rise of a new generation of young Mayan activists, a desperate economic situation for the poor that fuels increasing migration and crime, and above all a widespread recognition that the institutions of the state have been wholly captured by a predatory elite that was likely to continue in power. Candidate Arévalo, the son of Guatemala’s most beloved modern president, Juan José Arévalo, ran on a moderate, institutionalist platform and stayed away from hot-button social issues. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal duly announced that Torres and Arévalo would face off in a runoff election, to be held on Aug. 20. This set off a furious backlash as those forces who felt threatened by Semilla’s agenda tried to disqualify or undermine the party, using both the power of the state and private harassment and intimidation. First, the traditional political parties claimed fraud, causing a delay in the final tally as the Constitutional Court ordered a recount, despite all the political parties originally signing off on the results. The recount predictably changed nothing but, as has been done elsewhere, was apparently intended to sow doubts about the integrity of the electoral process. Instead, it provoked widespread indignation and further complaints – and bad international press –about the independence and impartiality of the Constitutional Court. Then the Attorney General’s Office intervened to try to disqualify Semilla. Porras has perfected the use of “lawfare” to attack human rights defenders, anti-corruption prosecutors and judges, investigative journalists, and other sources of opposition to the “Pact of the Corrupt.” The attacks on Semilla have focused on supposed false affiliation signatures during the party’s inscription drive, which took place in 2018. Conveniently, the day the runoff was certified, the AG’s office found an old complaint, from 2021, alleging that an individual who appeared on an affiliate list had never actually signed on. This was enough to trigger a request to a local court to de-certify Semilla’s registration as a party. Judge Freddy Orellana granted the request, despite a legal prohibition on de-certifying a political party during an election. This caused an uproar, with even the conservative private-sector chambers of commerce as well as opposing runoff candidate Sandra Torres, foreign embassies, the Organization of American States, and professional and civic organizations denouncing the move as an attempt to derail the will of voters. On July 13, the Constitutional Court issued a preliminary injunction against Judge Orellana and the Attorney General’s Office. The Court held that attempts to cancel Semilla as a political party during an election were unconstitutional, and that the runoff should proceed as planned. It reiterated that ruling on July 21, although leaving an opening for criminal investigations to continue so long as they don’t interfere with the elections. Orellana responded by doubling down, sending dozens of police to raid the offices of both Semilla and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, issuing an arrest warrant for the head of that Tribunal and, when he fled the country, issuing another warrant for his deputy (despite the fact that both officials have immunity and cannot be arrested without a prior proceeding). Orellana also issued arrest warrants for two Semilla militants and declared (with no evidence) that there were at least 5,000 falsified signatures. On July 23, the Constitutional Court again reiterated its injunction while denying a requested ruling against the attacks on electoral officials as unnecessary. “Legal” Authoritarianism and State Capture Respect for rule of law, freedom of expression, and democratic norms has been declining steadily since 2019, when the CICIG was expelled from the country after its investigations came too close to then-President Jimmy Morales. (See coverage here, here, and here.). In short order, a majority in Congress selected questionable high court judges, refusing to sit an independent Constitutional Court judge and postponing required elections for the Supreme Court, leaving the incumbents in place. (As the prospect of a Semilla victory threatens, the current Congress is now racing to complete those elections.) The attorney general jailed former prosecutor Virginia Laparra, who had worked closely with CICIG, put crusading journalist and newspaper publisher José Zamora into solitary confinement, and chased most of the country’s independent watchdogs (as described here) out of the country. Op-ed writers who criticized these actions were accused of obstruction of justice. Ironically, the Attorney General’s Office repurposed the very laws and prosecutorial units created to combat organized crime and large-scale corruption to attack those denouncing corruption. Money laundering accusations, bandied about despite being facially inapplicable, allowed Porras to centralize prosecutions in the newly purged anti-corruption unit. The head of the Supreme Court steered these cases to a handful of lower court judges, including Orellana. Retired military officers and far-right activists in the so-called Foundation Against Terrorism filed criminal complaints based on dubious facts and legal theories against perceived opponents, boasting in social media that they aimed for the “civic death” of those who had supported CICIG or the left. Hundreds of social media “netcenters” – collections of social media accounts that appear to be independent but are centrally controlled — with obscure funding churned out threats and abuse. In short, Guatemala followed the current global blueprint to install “legal” authoritarianism, here on behalf of a group of economic elites allied with organized crime groups and predatory government officials. This election may upend that blueprint. That possibility means that continued attacks on the electoral process, and especially on Semilla, are to be expected. The Attorney General’s Office has vowed to continue its investigations despite the Constitutional Court’s ruling; that ruling is provisional, and pressure will be exerted to change it or further water it down. On the other hand, the attempts to subvert the elections have mobilized indigenous and local authorities, and especially young people, to defend the process and the results. Massive demonstrations throughout the country have been met with police repression; that violent dynamic may intensify (or be provoked) in an effort to get either the military or President Giammattei’s government to step in and halt the elections. Semilla’s local activists are particularly at risk. And even if a clean election takes place, a Semilla-led government would face both legal attacks from the attorney general (who in Guatemala is independent of the government) and from an opposition-led Congress. The U.S. Role So far, the U.S. State Department and Congress have played a constructive role, condemning the attacks on Semilla’s offices and members and warning against any interference with free and fair elections. Under the U.S.-Northern Triangle Enhanced Engagement Act (better known as the Engel Act), the United States has listed Porras, her deputy Rafael Curruchiche, and most recently Orellana and other judges and prosecutors as having “knowingly engaged in acts that undermine democratic processes or institutions, in significant corruption, or in obstruction of investigations into such acts of corruption.” The listing results in U.S. visa denial and revocation but not financial sanctions. While publicly most of those on the Engel list have laughed off the sanctions, in private they seem to be having some effect. This Constitutional Court has not generally been willing to confront corrupt actors, and the threat of sanctions and loss of reputation may help strengthen their resolve. The private sector, especially, is afraid that Engel listing can lead to financial sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Act or other laws, which would limit their financial dealings with U.S. banks and have more real bite. The lack of public support for electoral interference from private-sector groups like CACIF (the Chamber of Commerce) may be due to fear of escalating sanctions. This suggests that between now and when a new government takes office next January, the United States can play a constructive role in several ways. It can serve as an intermediary in discussions with the private sector, emphasizing the dangers to them of perceived interference with elections as well as the advantages of a fresh start. It can use Global Magnitsky sanctions, with their financial implications, to strategically drive the point home and isolate the most anti-democratic elements. It can play a similar role with the military, urging non-interference and restraint, combined with a vow that security assistance will be restricted or cut entirely in case of violence against peaceful demonstrators or repression of political or media actors. And after the elections, it can help protect Semilla candidates, activists, and voters from a predictable upsurge in physical and legal attacks. It’s going to be a rocky several weeks between now and the scheduled Aug. 20 runoff, and may be in the aftermath, too. Stay tuned. In Guatemala, A Coup in Slow Motion3/14/2024  By Pedro Arce Sep 11, 2023 Ethnic Media Services: ethnicmediaservices.org/international-affairs/in-guatemala-a-coup-in-slow-motion/ Sep 11, 2023Forces in the Central American nation are working to undermine the transition of power to President Elect Bernardo Arévalo, who last month claimed a landslide win. This is a dangerous moment in Guatemala. Despite the recent landslide vote in favor of presidential anti-corruption candidate Bernardo Arévalo, and its certification by the national electoral authority, forces are doing everything possible to prevent the president-elect from taking office on January 14, from launching legal challenges to hatching assassination plots. The Organization of American States has asked for Arevalo to be protected. If attempts succeed to derail the orderly transfer of power in the largest country in Central America, repercussions will be grave not only for democracy in Guatemala, but also for 2 million Guatemalans living and working in the United States. The money they labor to send home – $1.8 billion last year – will be worth less as corrupt structures stay in place and the risk increases of political instability. After peace agreements in the 1990s ended a long and brutal armed conflict, Guatemalans have sought to reestablish the democracy they lost almost 70 years ago, using Constitutional processes and the agreements, including elections. Nevertheless, the traditional oligarchy and politicians, along with the military and sectors that have emerged under their shadow, such as mafias involved in drugs and human trafficking, have maintained control of the state apparatus, and today, more than ever, threaten the stability of the country. By means of dubious judicial procedures, the current regime is creating obstacles to impede the newly elected authorities, who campaigned on eliminating corruption, from taking office.  Bernardo Arévalo (L) won the 2nd and final round of voting in Guatemala and will take over as the Central American nation’s next president alongside his running mate, Karin Herrera. They oppose Arévalo because the president-elect and his Semilla Movement party are responding to deep seated desires of most Guatemalans to overcome the conditions of poverty, backwardness, discrimination, insecurity and absolute lack of legal certainty imposed by an alliance of powerful politicians and members of the business and military sectors. In Guatemala, the alliance is commonly known as “the Pact of the Corrupt”.
Instead of the old recourse of using a military uprising to subvert the will of voters, the Pact of the Corrupt, including several state institutions, is conspiring to break the constitutional order through a coup in slow motion, using the judicial system in place of bullets and proclamations to subvert the electoral system. The Guatemalan constitution establishes that elections are ruled by the Elections and Political Parties Act implemented by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). Throughout the run-ups to the first and second round of voting on June 25 and August 20, unscrupulous courts have been twisting the law to prohibit the inscription of political parties opposing the regime and allowing the participation of those perceived as innocuous. When voters favored Arevalo’s party, once considered innocuous, with a surprise victory, the current regime began attempts to fatally cripple Semilla. Those attempts include the following:
The actions have the effect of casting a shadow over Semilla’s congress members, so that they cannot be part of congressional committees. They throw into question the constitutional guarantee that the newly elected president and vice-president elect will take office on January 14. Since the landslide second round of elections August 20, when Arévalo received 60 percent of the vote to former first lady Sandra Torres’s 37 percent, these trumped-up legal challenges have continued. There is no doubt that the machinations under cover of law are a clumsy attempt to retain the control of the state, preserving the appearances of legality, but ensuring the continuation of an illegitimate, corrupt and unpopular regime. This rolling attempt to derail the popular vote, and undermine democracy, demands the attention of Guatemalans, and friends of Guatemala, wherever we are. Pedro Arce, a Guatemalan architect and retired city planner for the City of San Francisco, has lived in California for 43 years. He formerly collaborated with the Guatemalan News and Information Bureau.  By Edgar R. Ayala Oct 7, 2023 Ethnic Media Services https://ethnicmediaservices.org/international-affairs/coup-or-no-coup-whats-really-going-on-in-guatemala/ A “soft coup” is underway in Guatemala, where the sitting leader is conspiring behind the scenes to prevent the transition of power to the rightful winner of the last election. You don’t see the army on the streets, and there are no speeches being delivered by a military “junta” on “CNN en español.” How could a coup be happening in Guatemala, if the current president, Alejandro Giammattei, who is at the very end of his term, is not dissolving Congress and, under international pressure, has said that he will “carry out a peaceful transfer of power” to the newly-elected president? And why would Giammattei, a sitting president of the largest country in Central America with only three months remaining in his term, bother to orchestrate a coup? Very simple: As an act of self-preservation. After almost four years in office, accusations and cases alleging corruption against Giammattei and his allies are mounting, but the cases are not moving through the courts. No wonder. Giammattei exerts total control over the prosecutor’s office. Only legal cases against his detractors have gained any traction, and only his opponents have been jailed. Guatemala’s winning presidential candidate, Bernardo Arévalo, who recently won a landslide victory with a campaign against corruption, is bad news if your administration is utterly compromised. Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arévalo and his running mate, Karin Herrera. In a monumental miscalculation on the part of Giammattei and his co-conspirators, a hand-picked successor, Victor Valenzuela, failed to make the cut in the first round of elections in June. Victor Manuel Conde Valenzuela was supposed to go into a second election round against a supposedly unpopular opponent for an easy win. Instead, Arévalo, head of the newly formed Semilla Party, took the country by surprise, pulling ahead and winning second place. Then Arévalo, a social democrat, won the final election round in August and was declared president-elect by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, who judged the voting free and fair. His win triggered alarms up and down the corrupt state apparatus, sending powerful politicians and their operatives into panic mode. According to the Oxford dictionary a “coup” is “a sudden, violent, and unlawful seizure of power from a government.” The most notorious are those where the military overthrows a government to install a military leader or “junta” by force and violence, as happened recently in African countries such as Gabon and Niger. What we face now in Guatemala is another kind of coup d’état, a “soft coup” where a sitting leader conspires behind the scenes, with the final objective of not ceding power to the rightful winner of an election, instead passing the office illegally to another person or entity, thus breaking the constitutional order and reversing the will of the people. The conspirator weaponizes prosecutors and judges to violate electoral constitutional law and retroactively derail an election. Instead of using blunt force or violence, a “soft coup” is carried out under the veil of legality, manipulating the levers of jurisprudence, or overstepping them entirely to entrap the democratic process. To discredit or call into question an election that has already been certified and declared clean by an electoral authority and international official observers, is part of a soft coup.  A rendering of outgoing Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei, with the words “I do not see a coup d’etat. I do not denounce it.” (Credit: Edgar R. Ayala) Guatemalans are no strangers to coup d’états of the traditional kind, having had several in our recent history, notably when the CIA helped to overthrow a democratically elected government in 1954. That coup led to decades of military rule and was followed by U.S.-backed coups in the Dominican Republic in 1963, Chile in 1973, and Argentina in 1976. In 2009, Obama’s Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stage-managed a coup in Honduras.
Nor are we unfamiliar with “self-coups.” In 1993, President Jorge Serrano Elias, following the example of Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, dissolved Congress to stay in power that year. Today Guatemala is once again in the middle of a constitutional crisis, one President-elect Arévalo himself described as a coup d’état in a recent interview with the PBS Newshour. In “slow motion,” outgoing president Alejandro Giammattei is not dissolving Congress or ousting judges or magistrates. He planned the scenario ahead of time. He prepared for this. During his first three years in office, he managed to stack the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court, lower and appeals courts, and the Office of the Attorney General with unscrupulous and obedient legal operatives that have weaponized their institutions and resources to go after journalists, human rights defenders, or protectors of the land. Dozens have gone into exile, mostly in the United States, including prosecutors and judges who wouldn’t give in to the pressure. Little by little the current coup is moving forward, despite mounting international pressure and condemnation by the Organization of American States, the UN, the U.S. State Department, the European Union and leaders around the world. If Alejandro Giammattei and his handlers are successful, the presidency will not be transferred to the rightful winners of the elections in January. Instead, it will go to an interim government which will be selected by a sitting Congress with a political majority belonging to the ruling Vamos party. The “pact of the corrupt” – how many Guatemalans refer to Giammattei’s circle of acolytes – is terrified of a champion who would charge them with legal liabilities for recent acts. An interim government would provide Giammattei and others with cover to continue to profit by stealing from the country’s treasury or maintaining their government-inflated contracts with bribes from the business sector. The Guatemalan people have spoken loud and clear against corruption with their vote for Arevalo. Others will vote with their feet, as tens of thousands have done before, sick and tired of a country that denies its people opportunities to meet their basic needs. If the soft coup takes hold, the northbound migrant exodus will only worsen. So how to help stop it? You can write to your Congressional representative and ask for support to advance a resolution condemning the soft coup in Guatemala. Demand concrete sanctions, not just symbolic travel bans against individuals who want to go to Disney World. Demand bold actions such as placing Guatemala’s sugar import quota on hold until President-elect Arévalo is inaugurated on January 14. These actions would go a long way. You can call or write to President Biden and Vice President Harris, asking them to use their leadership to invoke the Interamerican Democratic Letter of the Organization of American States, which was designed to initiate collective actions from OAS members when the constitutional order has been breached in a member country. Or start a petition online or answer the calls of U.S.-based activists struggling to preserve and promote democracy in Guatemala. Time is short and the stakes are high. Edgar Ayala is a Guatemala-born graphic designer, interpreter and community activist. He has been involved in social justice causes in the San Francisco Bay Area for over three decades.  Above: Incoming Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo waves to supporters from the National Palace on his inauguration day in Guatemala City, early Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo) By Mary Jo McConahay Jan 17, 2024 Ethnic Media Services: https://ethnicmediaservices.org/international-affairs/high-hopes-as-guatemalans-celebrate-new-president/ GUATEMALA CITY — Residents of this largest city in Central America are waking up this week with hope in their new president, Bernardo Arèvalo, who took office in the pre-dawn hours Jan. 15 after a day of tension when his political enemies made last ditch efforts to delay the inauguration. In a region where autocracy is rising, Arevalo’s ascension in Guatemala is being seen as striking a blow for democracy. “He came in like a fish under water, nobody expected him,” said Marta Cuevas, 74, a tortilla-maker and mother of four whose face wore a look of glee as she watched Arèvalo take command of the armed forces in an open-air plaza later that morning. Arèvalo, a 65-year old academic and diplomat, won a surprise landslide victory in August, but weathered assassination plots, exiles and arrests of allies, and legal maneuvers by judicial authorities until finally being sworn in, before an audience of heads of state and other official guests forced to cool their heels for nine long hours when no-one knew whether Congress members in a boisterous session across town would agree to validate the election. “Democracy has overcome its hardest test,” read a local newspaper headline. A turning of the pageChange was quickly evident. The ceremony Cuevas and others witnessed would once have been unthinkable. In a purposefully public display, hundreds of military forces in uniformed ranks, including mounted cadets, naval officers, and camouflage-clad army special forces called Kaibiles, a unit responsible for some of the most egregious massacres in Guatemala’s civil war (ended 1996), pledged obedience to the civilian, democratically elected president, who took command with a discourse emphasizing human rights and adherence to the constitution.  Guatemalans carried flags representing “The Four Peoples” of Guatemala: Maya, Garifuna, Xinca, and ladinos in celebration of the inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo. (Credit: Mary Jo McConahay) New Minister of Defense Major General Henry Saenz Ramos committed the military’s “subordination and respect” to elected officials and spoke to the “dignity of the person.” A flyover of fixed wing aircraft and helicopters tipped its wings over the plaza, which once housed the presidential palace. The last time many in the crowd had seen that was during coups. Arevalo’s father, Juan Jose Arevalo (d. 1990), was the country’s first democratically elected president, inaugurating what is sometimes called the “Ten Years of Spring,” an era of progressive reforms that ended in 1954 with a CIA-sponsored coup that ushered in decades of government led by, or beholden to, the military. The younger Arèvalo, with academic degrees in philosophy and sociology, worked for years in Geneva on projects that provided counsel to groups in post-conflict regions, and is considered well prepared for working with the military. ‘An end to corruption’In numerous interviews about what they wanted from the new administration, Maya indigenous Guatemalans, who make up nearly half the population, spoke of an “end to corruption and delinquency,” better access to schools, respect for the territories where they lived and their natural resources, including woods and water. Amparo Consuelo, 72, of San Andres Ixtahuatan, in the country’s far west, led her expectations with a reduction in the cost of the “canasta basica,” or basic “basket” of food items such as beans and rice. “We want electricity, water, decent houses, work.”  Guatemalans celebrating the inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo. (Credit: Mary Jo McConahay) Consuelo and other women from their town travelled 11 hours to witness Arèvalo’s address to supporters in the central Plaza of the Constitution where, because of delays by Congress, they waited until 3 a.m. to see the new president who came in person to thank them. Consuelo had little doubt about where opposition to Arevalo would continue to come from—the country’s business elite and Justice Ministry officials who attempted to block him from taking office. “First he has to thank God, then deal with CACIF,” she said, the lobby that represents the country’s most powerful businesses, the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial, and Financial Associations. He had to “eliminate” functionaries on the take, she said, “beginning with the judicial organisms.” By law Arevalo cannot fire Attorney General Consuelo Porras, who oversaw opposition to the election results in the courts, but on day one of his presidency he asked for her resignation. Indigenous leadershipThe months-long, grueling show of resistance to official attempts to reverse election results was led by indigenous authorities, who caused roads to be blocked, kept up a constant flow of informational meetings and communiqués and organized an extraordinary 106-day peaceful siege of the Justice Ministry to pressure for respect for the vote. Maya from far-flung communities took turns sleeping on the sidewalks, displaying banners, providing food, and holding religious ceremonies by their spiritual guides. They attended outdoor mass given by the highest Catholic prelate in this Catholic country, Cardinal Alvaro Ramazzini, who is close to Pope Francis. Through it all the indigenous resisters carried not the flag of Arevalo’s Semilla political party, but the blue and white national banner.  Indigenous groups from around the country led the months-long push against efforts to derail Arévalo’s election. Many traveled long distances to attend the inauguration. (Credit: Mary Jo McConahay) “It’s not Arevalo they are for, it’s democracy,” said Santiago Bastos, a long-time scholar of Guatemalan ethnicities now at the Center for Research and Higher Studies in Social Anthropology in Guadalajara. Bastos was observing inauguration week events. Nevertheless, in the uncertain months between the election and inauguration Arevalo continually recognized the key role of the indigenous in protecting the vote that made him president. He often used the term “The Four Peoples” when speaking of Guatemalans, referring to distinct groups that make up the Guatemalan population – Maya, Garifuna, Xinca, and the ladinos or mostly white people who have run the country since the 16th century Spanish conquest. Arevalo’s first stop after inauguration in the National Theater, was to visit the Maya keeping vigil outside the ministry, in the middle of the night, and the next day he attended a Maya religious ceremony at Kaminal Juyu, an ancient site at the edge of the capital. He has named dozens of Maya administrative ministerial personnel and a member of his cabinet, Labor Minister Miriam Roquel, is Maya. Still, Arévalo is already receiving some criticism for not naming more Maya now to highly visible positions, although he has pledged to do so, as he said in his appearance in the public plaza after the inauguration, “to make them participants in making the decisions, recognizing them and taking in their wisdom…No more discrimination, no more racism.” High expectationsArevalo’s concerns and constituencies are many, and he will have to move and fund them without support of a majority in Congress. He immediately recognized responsibility to Guatemalan migrants – 55,000 were deported from the United States in 2023, a 36 percent increase over the year before, but said migration must be recognized as a “global” issue demanding international solutions.  Francisco Marcial, 58, a member of the Afro-descendent Garifuna community, was among those celebrating Arévalos inauguration. (Credit: Mary Jo McConahay) Guatemala would do its part, he said, caring compassionately for the thousands of Salvadorans, Nicaraguans, Hondurans and Venezuelans, for instance, who appear on their way to the United States – some can be seen begging on the streets.
A leader of one of the many cultural groups who came to the capital to celebrate with the crowds, Francisco Marcial, 58, a Garifuna professional musician, said that with Arévalo, “We hope in God to open the doors to decentralize government operations” to bring attention to towns like his, Livingston, on the Caribbean coast, whose residents are of African descent, and to include their history, as the Maya are included, in the national school curriculum. Arévalo, who emphasizes women’s rights, will preside over the country’s first gender-balanced presidential cabinet, and in the military ceremony in the plaza pledged to name the army’s first female brigadier general. But for some advocates that is not enough. Angela Mariela Romero, 46, legal representative of Trans Queens of the Night, a transgender support group that has observer status at the Organization of American States, has survived four assassination attempts and wants the new president to do something to confront attacks against LGBTQ+ persons. She said that “we want a law on gender identity” passed in Congress. “The expectation of the citizenry is high,” said an editorial in the country’s largest daily, Prensa Libre. For Arévalo’s new government, it said, “that constitutes the greatest challenge.” Journalist and author Mary Jo McConahay’s latest book is Playing God, American Catholic Bishops and the Far Right (Melville House) |
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